The South African elections have come and gone and nothing has really changed. Yes, the ANC’s share has been cut a bit, but they still have a healthy margin of victory. It is quite disappointing that a government can fail on so many fronts, yet receive blind loyalty from a base that protests in all forms, except at the ballot box.

So we continue to live in hope rather than expectation. Cyril Ramaphosa’s silence for most of the nine lost years makes him complicit in the failures and I am skeptical about the new dawn he proposes. (There might be some argument that it was best for him to bide his time rather than be alienated from the party). He is and has always been a politician at heart and a businessman by circumstance rather than acumen. As such, he will continue to play the political game rather than make the tough decisions needed, particularly because many on the ticket are cohorts of the Zuma faction.

If anything, the election results show the rise of nationalism, with the EFF growing (black nationalism); the VF+ growing (white nationalism) and the IFP growing (Zulu nationalism). This is not unique to South Africa, as we see the rise in nationalism in the USA, Britain, Brazil and Spain (to name but a few) and is the product of a disgruntled or threatened people spurred by self-preservation. The problem in SA is that we are made up of many nations, so perhaps a purer form of federalism would be the best solution – but this is a subject too broad for this letter. The strongest local force has been black nationalism, with policy being pulled to the left. Long before the elections the ANC could see where the threat lay and so we had the adoption of free tertiary education and land expropriation without compensation. It is ironic that this should be so, as the best way to address the concerns of the poor would be capitalist policies (including the protection of property rights) in order to encourage investment to address joblessness. Whilst capitalism might not be pretty, when mixed with a social conscience (rather than raw socialism), it is the best system we have. However, this road will take time – time which has been wasted and which we no longer have. Socialist and neo-communist policies are noble in theory, but unworkable in practice. They have been shown to have failed and left people worse off than ever. However, the unemployed, poor, uneducated population (most of whom are young) have lost patience and look for more immediate redress. Anyone who can promise this, no matter how fanciful the ideas, will gain support.

Whilst the DA has received acknowledgment for the Western Cape being managed relatively better, they need to up their game and show this province to be a center of excellence. Perhaps easier said than done when you do not have national control, but they should none the less ditch their attempt to be all things to all people and concentrate on that which they can control.

The ANC came close to losing Gauteng, but in the end held on. Given that we vote for parties rather than representatives, it is highly unlikely we will see the minority parties gain support from a faction within the ANC to further their own agendas. Just think back to the numerous no-confidence votes put forward for Zuma – the ANC was able to hold the party line.

So what does this mean for investments? I continue to foresee a lack of political will to make the necessary changes and populist / socialist policies will not only hold, but increase. As such, locally we will continue to lag the global economy. Since the election the Rand has strengthened somewhat – this in the midst of increased trade tensions between the USA and China, which has always caused the Rand to weaken. So one must assume there has been some relief that we still have the devil we know. However, emotions will settle, reality will once again kick in and the Rand will continue its weakening trend. I therefore continue to advocate offshore investments where opportunities are bigger, better and more secure. I need to see concrete evidence of the new dawn before I call otherwise.